On Friday, March 29, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published February 2013 employment data for Georgia.
In February, Georgia’s nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted, increased by only 2,600 jobs. This resulted in a percentage increase over the month of only 0.065 percent, not enough to determine whether the increase was real or only a statistical variation in the sample data.
For state and sub-state data, changes in the sample are statistically significant only when the changes are 0.2 percentage points or greater. Georgia’s numbers in February were too small to meet this threshold and therefore could be characterized as “essentially unchanged.”
The February data reverses a prior three-month slow but steady gain in jobs after a burst of speed in October, the month just before the Presidential Election.
Table A. Georgia’s nonfarm jobs net change over the month
September -3,000
October 25,900
November 6,200
December 7,800
January 9,500
February 2,600
The most recent four months combined total (26,100 jobs) just exceeds October’s one-month jump of 25,900.
This cannot be attributed to normal seasonal patterns, as the data are already seasonally adjusted to account for this normal cycle of seasonal growth in October-December followed by a slump in January-February.
Over the year, Georgia has added 72,100 jobs, an increase of 1.8 percent. All of the net growth occurred in the private sector, which gained a total of 81,900 jobs for the past 12 months, as government jobs dropped by 9,800.
The Georgia data for February contrasts with the nation, which grew by 236,000 jobs, a statistically significant increase of 0.2 percent.
Georgia passes the 4 million jobs mark
If there is any bright note in the data, Georgia passed the 4 million job mark in February. The number is totally symbolic with no economic consequence, but worth noting anyways.
Georgia has not had more than 4 million nonfarm jobs in the state since early in 2009. It has taken the state four years to regain this position.
By Industry over-the-month
For February, the best performing sectors of the economy were the Information (2,500 jobs/2.5 percent), Professional & Business Services (3,300 jobs/0.6 percent) and Construction (600 jobs/0.4 percent) industries.
The worse performing sectors were Transportation & Utilities (-2,300 jobs/ -1.2 percent), State Government (-1,000 jobs/-0.6 percent) and Leisure and Hospitality (-1,500 jobs/-0.4 percent).
The Construction jobs growth is welcomed news to this struggling sector, where weather plays a major part in employment. It will take months of consecutive good numbers to revive this sector, which still posts roughly the same number of jobs it had in February 2012.
It is less clear why the Leisure and Hospitality sector took a dive in February, and we will have to wait and see if this is a one-time aberration of the preliminary data, or whether some deeper factors are at work in this sector that includes restaurant and hotel workers.
State and Local Government combined to a net loss of 2,000 jobs over the month., a trend which has become “old news.”
Annual growth – look to the Information economy
Since February 2012, the best performing industry has been Information. While only accounting for 2.6 percent of the state’s labor market, it has grown by 6.1 percent over the year.
Other exceptional sectors have been Professional & Business Services (4.9 percent) and Leisure & Hospitality (4.7 percent).
Losses continue at all levels of government. Federal jobs have declined by 1.9 percent, State jobs by 1.8 percent, and Local Government by 1.2 percent.
Over the past 12 months, State and Local Government lost a combined 7,800 jobs.
Manufacturing jobs continue to produce indifferent growth, increasing by only 1.1 percent over the year.
Email at michaelwald50@gmail.com