Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsWhile is well-recognized that the COVID-19 pandemic has
affected employment across a large swath of industries in the U.S., it is more
problematic to determine its impact over the coming decade.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes ten-year employment
projections for approximately 300 industries, with its latest projections for
2019-2029 released in September 2020. Overall, BLS expected that employment
would grow by 3.7 percent over the 2019-2029 decade.
In February 2021, BLS developed alternate projections assuming
that the pandemic created structural changes to the future job market in some
industries.
The information below is based on the moderate-impact
scenario and highlights selected industries that may benefit from adjustments
to the economy due to the pandemic.
Pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing employment (NAICS
3254)
·
National baseline percentage change 2019-2029: 5
percent increase.
·
Moderate impact percentage change 2019-2029: 19
percent increase.
·
In Georgia, the industry has grown by 15 percent
(487 jobs) 2009-2019, twice the rate of the nation. While the industry is still
a small part of the state’s total employment (only 0.1%), the national
projections imply that this industry could grow at more than 3x its current
rate in Georgia.
Research and development in the physical, engineering and
life sciences employment (NAICS 5417)
·
National baseline percentage change 2019-2029: 4
percent increase.
·
Moderate impact percentage change 2019-2029: 8
percent increase.
·
In Georgia, the industry has grown by 64 percent
(2,695 jobs) 2009-2019, nearly 4x the rate of the nation. With the nation
projected to grow by another 8 percent in 2019-2029, it is likely that if
Georgia’s employment grew at only half of its previous decade, more than 9,000
Georgians could be employed in this industry by 2029.
Computer systems
design and related services employment (NAICS 5415)
·
National baseline percentage change 2019-2029: 26
percent increase.
·
Moderate impact percentage change 2019-2029: 29
percent increase.
·
In Georgia, this fast-growing industry has grown
even faster in the state, adding 24,959 jobs between 2009-2019. While BLS
expects the industry to grow by 29 percent nationwide by 2029, if the state can
continue to outpace the nation, computer systems design and related services
could employ more than 100,000 Georgians by 2029 despite the short-term loss of
10,000 jobs in the state during 2020.
Computer equipment and peripheral equipment manufacturing
employment (NAICS 3341)
·
National baseline percentage change 2019-2029: 3
percent increase.
·
Moderate impact percentage change 2019-2029: 19
percent increase.
·
In Georgia, the industry had recorded no growth the
2009-2019 decade and accounted for less than one percent of the state’s total
employment in 2019. As a result, even with expectations of higher growth in the
industry nationwide, there is no immediate reason to expect that this will be a
growing industry in Georgia unless the state can attract new companies in this industry
over the next decade.
Construction – residential and nonresidential employment (NAICS
2361 and 2362)
·
National baseline percentage change 2019-2029: 4
percent increase in both residential and nonresidential construction.
·
Moderate impact percentage change 2019-2029: 5 percent
increase in residential and 2 percent decline in nonresidential.
·
In Georgia, residential construction employment
has been growing faster than the nation in the 2009-2019 decade, rising by more
than 58 percent compared to 30 percent nationwide, so projections that this
will grow even faster is good news for the state.
·
Nonresidential construction employment in
Georgia has lagged the nation by nearly 50 percent in the 2009-2019 decade. If
the BLS projections are correct for the nation and apply similarly in Georgia,
then it can be expected that nonresidential employment in the state will fall
further behind other industries over the next 10 years.
Because residential construction employment
in Georgia is so much larger than nonresidential construction, the net effect
will be a projection of significant growth in the construction industry in the
state.
Source of BLS data: Elka Torpey, "Effects of the
pandemic on projected employment in selected industries, 2019–29," Career
Outlook, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2021. https://www.bls.gov/careeroutlook/2021/data-on-display/alternate-projections.htm
Georgia state projections were developed by the author and are only meant to be
approximations of possible employment outcomes 2019-2029 based on BLS national
projections and state job history.