Yes, the hospitality industry in Georgia lost a lot of jobs, but it may be the abrupt swing that matters more

 Calendar year percentage change in leisure and hospitality employment in Georgia, 2010-2020

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

By now, everyone knows the devastating impact that Covid-19-related shutdowns has had on Georgia’s hospitality industry. In 2020, the state’s leisure and hospitality sector employment declined by more than 10 percent; a loss of five years employment gains in only 12 months.

While the losses are severe, it is also important to consider how abruptly the change occurred and the emotional effect it has had on workers in that sector.

For the five years prior to 2020, leisure and hospitality employment in Georgia had grown on average nearly three percent per year compared to a 2.2 percent average for all private sector employment. More than 16 percent of the state’s net new jobs had been created by the leisure and hospitality sector between 2014 and 2019.

Employment swings within leisure and hospitality sector

To provide more perspective, the leisure and hospitality sector had added 13,900 jobs in 2019 before shedding 50,700 in 2020 according to information from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, a swing of 64,600 over two years.

The industry employing the most workers in the sector, the food services and drinking places industry, saw the largest swing, moving from a gain of 10,300 jobs in 2019 to a loss of 28,700 jobs in 2020, a swing of 39,000 in two years. In 2020, the industry gave up all of the job gains achieved since 2016.

The accommodation industry (mainly hotels and motels), while employing less than 10 percent of the workers in the leisure and hospitality sector, actually has taken the largest fall. The industry had seen a growth of 3,200 jobs in 2019 before recording a decline of 12,400 jobs in 2020, causing a swing of 15,600 over two years. With the 2020 decline, the accommodation industry in Georgia now employs fewer workers than it did in 2003.

For workers in both the accommodation and food services industries, the future remains very uncertain. The sharp drop-off of employment in two industries that were adding significant numbers of workers before 2020, means that career hopes for former employees in these industries have taken a sharp negative turn.

Georgia one of only four states with a greater than 30% African American labor force compared to 12.6% nationally; large variations in employment by industry

 

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

African Americans represented a 31.9 percent share of Georgia’s labor force in 2020, one of only four states and the District of Columbia, where African Americans’ share of the labor market exceeded thirty percent, according to newly released data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

The other states included Mississippi (35.5 percent), Maryland (31.5 percent), and Louisiana (31.0 percent). In the District of Columbia, African Americans comprised 35.0 percent of the labor force. By comparison, African Americans accounted for 12.6 percent of the U.S. labor force. BLS defines labor force as the sum of the number of employed and unemployed persons in a labor market.

African Americans employment by industry for the United States in 2020 

BLS does not provide a current breakout by race for the number of people employed by detailed industries in Georgia, but in a separate report, BLS has published the number of people employed by detailed industry and race for the nation. 

Nationally, African Americans accounted for 12.1 percent of all employed workers in 2020, but these percentages vary considerably by industry from zero percent to more than 33 percent. 

Industries with a workforce that includes a much higher-than-average share of African American workers in 2020 include:

• Bus service and urban transit (33.4%)
• Psychiatric and substance abuse hospitals (30.6%)
• Home health care services (28.8%)
• Investigation and security services (28.4%)
• Barber shops (28.0%)
• Nursing care facilities (skilled nursing facilities) (27.7%)
• Community food and housing, and emergency services (social assistance) (27.3%)
• Taxi and limousine service (27.1%)
• Postal Service (24.8%)
• Couriers and messengers (23.9%)
• Warehousing and storage (23.5%)
• Administration of human resource programs (public administration) (22.8%)
• Residential care facilities, except skilled nursing facilities (21.7%)
• Individual and family services (social assistance) (20.6%)
• General merchandise stores, including warehouse clubs and supercenters (20.3%)
• Business support services (20.1%)
• Animal slaughtering and processing (20.0%)

 

Industries with a workforce that includes a fewer-than-three-percent share of African American workers in 2020 include:

• Machinery, equipment, and supplies merchant wholesalers (2.8%)
• Crop production (2.8%)
• Farm product raw material merchant wholesalers (1.8%)
• Alcoholic beverages merchant wholesalers (1.8%)
• Electronic and precision equipment repair and maintenance (1.7%)
• Fuel dealers (retail) (1.6%)
• Miscellaneous durable goods merchant wholesalers (1.3%)
• Metalworking machinery manufacturing (1.2%)
• Coating, engraving, heat treating, and allied activities (1.0%)
• Lawn and garden equipment and supplies stores (1.0%)
• Other than automobile motor vehicle dealers (0.9%)
• Nonmetallic mineral mining and quarrying (0.8%)
• Software publishers (0.4%)
• Forestry, except logging (0.0%)

 

Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, The Economics Daily, Four states and D.C. had labor force that was more than 30 percent African American in 2020 at https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2021/four-states-and-dc-had-labor-force-that-was-more-than-30-percent-african-american-in-2020.htm (visited February 20, 2021). 

Labor force statistics from the Current Population Survey: Employed persons by detailed industry, sex, race, and Hispanic or Latino ethnicity at Employed persons by detailed industry, sex, race, and Hispanic or Latino ethnicity (bls.gov) (visited February 20, 2021).

Where effects of the pandemic on projected employment growth may create employment opportunities in selected Georgia industries

 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

While is well-recognized that the COVID-19 pandemic has affected employment across a large swath of industries in the U.S., it is more problematic to determine its impact over the coming decade.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes ten-year employment projections for approximately 300 industries, with its latest projections for 2019-2029 released in September 2020. Overall, BLS expected that employment would grow by 3.7 percent over the 2019-2029 decade.

In February 2021, BLS developed alternate projections assuming that the pandemic created structural changes to the future job market in some industries.

The information below is based on the moderate-impact scenario and highlights selected industries that may benefit from adjustments to the economy due to the pandemic.

 

Pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing employment (NAICS 3254)

·         National baseline percentage change 2019-2029: 5 percent increase.

·         Moderate impact percentage change 2019-2029: 19 percent increase. 

·         In Georgia, the industry has grown by 15 percent (487 jobs) 2009-2019, twice the rate of the nation. While the industry is still a small part of the state’s total employment (only 0.1%), the national projections imply that this industry could grow at more than 3x its current rate in Georgia.

Research and development in the physical, engineering and life sciences employment (NAICS 5417)

·         National baseline percentage change 2019-2029: 4 percent increase.

·         Moderate impact percentage change 2019-2029: 8 percent increase. 

·         In Georgia, the industry has grown by 64 percent (2,695 jobs) 2009-2019, nearly 4x the rate of the nation. With the nation projected to grow by another 8 percent in 2019-2029, it is likely that if Georgia’s employment grew at only half of its previous decade, more than 9,000 Georgians could be employed in this industry by 2029. 

 Computer systems design and related services employment (NAICS 5415)

·         National baseline percentage change 2019-2029: 26 percent increase.

·         Moderate impact percentage change 2019-2029: 29 percent increase. 

·         In Georgia, this fast-growing industry has grown even faster in the state, adding 24,959 jobs between 2009-2019. While BLS expects the industry to grow by 29 percent nationwide by 2029, if the state can continue to outpace the nation, computer systems design and related services could employ more than 100,000 Georgians by 2029 despite the short-term loss of 10,000 jobs in the state during 2020.

Computer equipment and peripheral equipment manufacturing employment (NAICS 3341)

·         National baseline percentage change 2019-2029: 3 percent increase.

·         Moderate impact percentage change 2019-2029: 19 percent increase. 

·         In Georgia, the industry had recorded no growth the 2009-2019 decade and accounted for less than one percent of the state’s total employment in 2019. As a result, even with expectations of higher growth in the industry nationwide, there is no immediate reason to expect that this will be a growing industry in Georgia unless the state can attract new companies in this industry over the next decade.

Construction – residential and nonresidential employment (NAICS 2361 and 2362)

·         National baseline percentage change 2019-2029: 4 percent increase in both residential and nonresidential construction.

·         Moderate impact percentage change 2019-2029: 5 percent increase in residential and 2 percent decline in nonresidential. 

·         In Georgia, residential construction employment has been growing faster than the nation in the 2009-2019 decade, rising by more than 58 percent compared to 30 percent nationwide, so projections that this will grow even faster is good news for the state. 

·         Nonresidential construction employment in Georgia has lagged the nation by nearly 50 percent in the 2009-2019 decade. If the BLS projections are correct for the nation and apply similarly in Georgia, then it can be expected that nonresidential employment in the state will fall further behind other industries over the next 10 years. 

Because residential construction employment in Georgia is so much larger than nonresidential construction, the net effect will be a projection of significant growth in the construction industry in the state. 

Source of BLS data: Elka Torpey, "Effects of the pandemic on projected employment in selected industries, 2019–29," Career Outlook, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2021. https://www.bls.gov/careeroutlook/2021/data-on-display/alternate-projections.htm 

Georgia state projections were developed by  the author and are only meant to be approximations of possible employment outcomes 2019-2029 based on BLS national projections and state job history.