Showing posts with label Atlanta metro employment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Atlanta metro employment. Show all posts

Saturday, November 6, 2021

Georgia sees job growth in September but without much help from the metro areas

 Georgia nonfarm employment, January-September 2021

Georgia added 14,300 nonfarm jobs in September after seeing a net decline of 700 jobs in August, according to new and revised seasonally adjusted data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Although the 29-county area that makes up metropolitan Atlanta accounts for more than 60% of the state’s nonfarm jobs, it contributed only a third of the state’s job growth in September.

Georgia’s other 13 metro areas reported a net increase of less than a tenth of the state’s increase, with the majority of job growth occurring in the state’s rural area, according to BLS.

The state recorded an unemployment rate of 3.2% in September, down from 3.5% reported in August.

Before seasonal adjustment, both the state and the metro Atlanta’s unemployment rate in September came in at 2.5%.

Atlanta and statewide employment

Before seasonal adjustment, the Atlanta metro area saw an increase of 4,000 jobs in September, all of which belonged to the government sector (Federal, state, and local governments).

Private sector employment fell by 1,700 jobs in the Atlanta metro area. The rest of Georgia, excluding the Atlanta area, saw a net gain of 1,900 private sector jobs over the month.

Construction jobs grew by 500 in the Atlanta area and the state added another 500 jobs in the rest of the state.

Manufacturing jobs grew by 1,300 jobs in the Atlanta metro area even as the rest of the state recorded a decline of 1,600 jobs.

Health care and social assistance jobs fell by 3,300 in the metro Atlanta area but rose by 1,200 in the rest of Georgia.

Employment in food services and drinking places dropped by 3,000 in metro Atlanta, while the rest of Georgia saw a loss of 1,800 jobs.

As mentioned above, government jobs were a bright spot for the Atlanta metro area, rising by 5,700 over the month. The rest of Georgia saw a net increase of 700 jobs in September.


Friday, January 24, 2020

Atlanta area accounts for all of Georgia’s net job growth in the 4th quarter of 2019

Georgia job growth, 2006-2019

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

As job growth in Georgia continues to slow, all of the state’s job growth was concentrated in the Atlanta metro area, while the rest of the state actually recorded a net job loss in the final quarter of 2019.

Preliminary data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that Georgia added 17,700 new jobs in the 4th quarter of 2019 with the Atlanta metro area growing by 22,600 jobs while the rest of the state lost 4,900 jobs between October and December.

For the year, Georgia added 66,700 job. In contrast, the state added 92,500 jobs in 2018 and 69,400 jobs in 2017.

The state recorded a growth rate of 1.5%, its slowest calendar year rate of increase since 2011.
The state did set a series low unemployment rate of 3.2% in 2019 as the number of unemployed workers in the state dropped by 14,742 in the 4th quarter.

Over the year, the number of unemployed dropped by 29,176 while the state’s labor force grew by 17,653. The combination of slower growth in the state’s labor force with fewer people seeking work contributed to the decline in the unemployment rate.

Georgia labor force, 2014-2019

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Atlanta was key to job growth


Atlanta metro area job growth, 2006-2019

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


The metro Atlanta region added 65,700 jobs in 2019, an increase of 2.3%, its best calendar year increase since 2016.

Excluding the Atlanta metro area, the rest of the state added only 1,000 jobs over the past 12 months.
The small net increase for all counties excluding the Atlanta metropolitan statistical area was the worst showing since 2011.

Other metro areas in Georgia


While many of the metro areas showed some employment gains in 2019, the number of jobs added were below those added in 2018.

Albany recorded a 500 job decline in the 4th quarter of 2019 and a loss of 100 jobs for calendar year 2019.

Athens posted a 1,100 job gain for the quarter and a 1,400 net job gain for the calendar year.

Augusta recorded a 100 job gain for the quarter and added 2,800 jobs for the year.

Brunswick showed zero net job growth over the quarter and a 700 job gain for the year.

Columbus lost 600 jobs over the quarter and was down by 1,400 jobs for the year.

Dalton added 200 jobs over the quarter with a net gain of 300 jobs over the year.

Gainesville showed an increased of 700 jobs for the quarter with a net addition of 3,500 jobs for the year.

Hinesville lost 100 jobs in the quarter but posted a 400 job gain for the year.

Macon added 100 jobs in the quarter with the result of a 700 job gain over the year.

Rome gained 300 jobs over the quarter and posted a 1,100 job gain for the year.

Savannah added 1,400 jobs in the quarter and ended the year with a net gain of 2,100 jobs.

Valdosta gained 300 jobs over the quarter and ended the year with a net gain of 700 jobs.

Warner Robins added 100 jobs in the quarter and gained 1,300 jobs over the year.

Statewide jobs numbers and unemployment are a combination of metropolitan and rural parts of Georgia and includes information for 159 counties. Net gains for the metropolitan areas in the state cannot be measured by simply totaling the changes for each area. Some metropolitan statistical areas stretch over two states, so some metro job numbers include jobs gained or lost outside of Georgia. For example, the Columbus area includes parts of Alabama.

When BLS compiles the state data for Georgia, the agency excludes counties located in other states in their statewide data but includes them when measuring metro area job numbers and unemployment rates. As it happens, the Atlanta metro area includes only counties in Georgia, so by subtracting the Atlanta metro numbers from the statewide figures, it is possible to compare the Atlanta metro region to the rest of the state.

Monday, September 26, 2016

Does Georgia’s slower job growth in August mean less employment in December?

Employment tends to follow seasonal variations. These variations are well known and re-occur annually allowing the Bureau of Labor Statistics to adjust their job numbers by making seasonal adjustments.

Take out those seasonal adjustments and you can see that Georgia’s job growth in August was the slowest in six years.

While Georgia added 20,300 nonfarm jobs over the month, this number falls way below the 33,300 jobs added in August 2015. Not since 2010, when the state recorded a rise of 16,000 jobs, has Georgia experienced such a slow August in job creation.

Job growth in Georgia during August, 2006-2016
Despite the state’s unemployment rate dropping to a seasonally adjusted 4.9 percent rate, the employment picture was not as positive as expected.

State’s 12-month job increases declining

While Georgia continues to outpace the nation in job growth, that trend is slowing, which becomes a worrying sign of a potential slowdown in the state.

For the 12 months ending in April, Georgia saw 137,700 net new jobs created in the state. Since then, the 12-month increases have fallen each month, and in August, the 12-month increase was only 107,500 new jobs.

Number of jobs created in Georgia over the previous 12 months, January - August, 2016
It could be that employers are having a rougher time finding skilled workers without wanting to raise wage rates, or companies may be more cautious in their hiring; but for whatever reason, Georgia continues to create new jobs but fewer of them.

Trend not the same for the nation

The drop-off in new jobs did not extend to the nation. The U.S. added 224,000 new jobs (before seasonal adjustment) in August, 25,000 more than recorded for the same month in 2015, although this was fewer than in the month of August for the years 2011 to 2014.

Over the 12 months ending in August, the nation recorded a job growth increase of 1.7 percent (before seasonal adjustment), less than the 2.0 percent growth rate recorded in 2015 or the 1.9 percent rate in 2014, but equal to the growth rates recorded in August 2012 and 2013.

The drop-off in Georgia does not appear to be part of a significant national trend, at least not yet.

Problem is Georgia’s job market outside Atlanta

A key component for Georgia is the Atlanta metro area, which is home to more than 60 percent of the state’s nonfarm employment.

In August, the Atlanta metro area grew by 14,500 jobs, fewer than for the same month in 2015, but representing about 71 percent of the state’s new jobs, way above their normal percentage.

That says that the slowdown is being felt more widely in the rest of the state than in the Atlanta metro area, which is why the slowdown may not be as visible in metro Atlanta.

Slow metro growth continues in Augusta, Columbus, Dalton, Hinesville, and Warner Robins.
In these areas, new job creation is slower than both statewide and the nation, most likely for a variety of reasons including the desire of high-tech and service industries to locate in the Atlanta metro area where the larger percentage of a higher-educated workforce is available, as well as other amenities such as public transportation and cultural opportunities.

Savannah remains a bright spot with 12-month growth at 4 percent, as its combination of port-related activities, professional and business services, and tourism makes it a regional hub.

What does this have to do with December?

Although we tend to connect job growth with a burst each year around the Christmas season as retailers add seasonal hires in November, August is actually a bigger month for hires than November or December in Georgia.

With the exception of 2009, the August job growth number in Georgia has been larger than the comparable number for November or December in that same year since the beginning of the century.

If that trend holds for this year, Georgia’s relatively small 20,300 August job growth will mean a relatively smaller job market in November and December.

While some retailers and fast-food operators might be worried about seasonal hires this year, overall, the job market may not be as tight as anticipated, although wages above the $7.25 mark may still be necessary to entice workers given the ongoing Fight-for-$15 movement.

Workers may find low-paying seasonal jobs in November and December in the $9-$10 range, but better-paying career positions might be harder to find in Georgia, and especially outside the Atlanta metro area, if these trends persist.

For job seekers, the message is to find that new position now and not hope that a tighter job market might raise wages later in the year.

For state policymakers, they should not be complacent about job creation outside the Atlanta metro area. In many smaller metro areas of the state, and for rural areas, the future does not look as bright.

Monday, January 4, 2016

Happy New Year: Atlanta area ends 2015 on high note

The Atlanta area posted the greatest percentage growth in jobs among the largest metro areas in the nation for the most recent 12-month period, according to newly released data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Over the year, the Atlanta metro area saw a 3.4% increase that translates into 86,500 new jobs. 

Among the large metros, the Dallas area recorded the next greatest increase, rising 3.0%. Houston showed the smallest annual increase at 0.8%.For the three months ending in November, Atlanta added 50,300 jobs, which was the most jobs created for the fall period looking at records going back to 1990.

As a result of this burst of job creation, the metro area’s unemployment rate dropped to 5.0%, a rate last recorded in 2008. In November 2014, the metro area’s unemployment rate stood at 6.1%.

Despite the large number of new jobs, the metro area has seen only a small increase in its labor force, rising by less than 16,000 people in the past year, an increase of 0.5%.

The combination of new jobs plus a lagging labor force places greater pressure on employers trying to hire and retain employees. 

Atlanta continues its role as the job engine for the state.

The Atlanta area is increasingly becoming the key to economic growth in the state. Here are a few indicators of the Atlanta metro area’s importance to Georgia:

Percentage of Georgia’s job growth attributable to the Atlanta metro area:
1-Month: 86.4%
3-Month: 64.2%
1-Year:  92.5%

5-Years: 78.1%

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Is Atlanta running out of workers?

With the Atlanta region seeing continued employment growth, employers may need to leave jobs unfilled if they cannot find sufficient numbers of qualified workers.



Back in 2008-2009 during the recession, it would have been a question that would get you laughed out of a conference: Is the Atlanta region running out of workers?

From the end of 2007 to the beginning of 2010, the Atlanta area shed more than 200,000 jobs. Since then, the area’s employment has grown by more than 390,000. In October alone, the metro area recorded 32,400 new jobs. 

For the 12 months ending in October, the Atlanta metro area’s 3.5% increase placed it as the largest percentage increase among the nation’s 10 top population centers, beating areas like Dallas and Los Angeles and far outdistancing the nation’s 2% employment increase.At the same time, as impressive as the job creation has been, so far 2015 has seen a net increase of 9,100 fewer jobs compared to the same period in 2014.

Are businesses in the Atlanta area creating fewer new jobs simply because they are running out of good candidates to hire? If so, what options are available to increase the pool of available workers?

Labor Force

Back during the depths of the recession, Atlanta’s labor force (which the government defines as the number of workers employed plus those unemployed but actively seeking work) hit a low of about 2.7 million after climbing steadily over the previous 18 years. The drop off could easily be explained by the large number of workers who, faced with unemployment, chose instead early retirement or just became discouraged and dropped out of the labor force.

It was expected that as the economy improved, those workers would rejoin the labor force. Since that low point, labor force for the Atlanta metro area has grown much slower than the number of new jobs. From 2010 to 2012, about 102,000 people were added to the area’s labor force. Since then, only another 27,000 have been added in the past 30 months.



The slow growth in labor force is not confined to Georgia. Looking forward, a recent federal government report anticipates that rate of growth in the nation’s labor force will continue to decline. From 1994 to 2004, the nation’s labor force grew by 12.5%. The government now expects the U.S. labor force to grow by only 5.0% from 2014 to 2024.

Population is not an issue in the Atlanta metro area as the region continues to add people. The Census Bureau estimates that between 2010 and 2014, the Atlanta metro area has added more than 327,000 new residents.

What happened to the rest? Economists speculate that the lack of growth in labor force numbers can be attributed to two simultaneous trends. With an ageing population, it is thought that older workers are retiring, while younger folks choose school over work believing that more education will make them more valuable to employers in the future. It is also possible that some discouraged workers forced out of the labor force from the recession have given up and will never return.

There are some anecdotal information in support of these theories. In addition, the recession saw a spike in the number of workers applying for Social Security disability. Those on permanent disability may represent an additional group of former workers who plan to never return to employment.

Migration within Georgia

While the Atlanta area has been “red hot” in terms of job growth, the same cannot be said for the rest of the state. Smaller metro areas, such as Albany and Brunswick, actually continue to record employment losses. The Albany area employs about the same number of workers as it did in the early 1990's, while Brunswick and Valdosta have reported no net job growth in the past 10 years.

Could these workers be persuaded to move to the Atlanta area? It is possible, although it would be mainly younger workers and the more educated who would be most likely to seek out new opportunities leaving behind an older, less educated workforce in those areas.

While it is certain that these areas would like to attract businesses to relocate to their areas, increasingly, it appears that large metro areas provide benefits not available in smaller communities. These benefits include a large number of potential customers, easy interaction with both suppliers and customers, and improved social and cultural infrastructure (schools, hospitals, museums, music venues, etc.) that are simply not available without a large population.

Even if Atlanta was able to attract more workers from these three smaller metro areas, their combined labor forces are less than 175,000. Moving even 10% of these to Atlanta would boost the Atlanta metro by only 17,000 or so. It would take migration from all parts of Georgia to significantly boost the Atlanta area’s labor force, which already accounts for approximately half of the state’s labor force.

Migration from other states

The Atlanta region has had particular success in encouraging people from other parts of the U.S. to relocate to the Atlanta region. Much of the area’s growth in the 1990's came from people moving from other southeastern states, as well as the Northeast and Midwest, to Georgia.

Some of the causes of this previous migration might be hard to re-create. Previous so-called “rust belt” states are also experiencing recovering economies so that people are not as desperate to move from their home areas. While Georgia has previously exploited its role as a “right-to-work” state, other states, such as Indiana and Michigan have now passed similar laws. West Virginia may be the next state to remove this incentive for companies to relocate to Georgia.

Finally, the return migration of African-Americans back to southern states has occurred and is not likely to be repeated in such a large scale in the future.

Migration from outside the U.S.

Unlike the Northeast, Georgia did not greatly benefit from an influx of European immigrants in the 19th Century. A report from the Pew Research Center indicates that from 2009 to 2014, the number of Mexicans in the United States actually declined by a net of 130,000. The report speculates that “the slow recovery of the U.S. economy after the Great Recession may have made the U.S. less attractive to potential Mexican migrants and may have pushed out some Mexican immigrants as the U.S. job market deteriorated. In addition, stricter enforcement of U.S. immigration laws, particularly at the U.S.-Mexico border (Rosenblum and Meissner, 2014), may have contributed to the reduction of Mexican immigrants coming to the U.S. in recent years.”

As immigrants find better opportunities closer to home, they are less likely to search for jobs in the U.S. Those immigrants who are more likely to come to the U.S., such as Syrians, Iraqis, and others whose own homelands are being disrupted by war, are finding it harder to emigrate as the U.S. strengthens its barriers to entry.

As state leaders speak about in discouraging the resettlement of Syrian refugees in Georgia, the result might not only dampen Middle Eastern refugees’ enthusiasm for relocating to Georgia, it may also give pause to immigrants from other parts of the world who might feel that Georgia is not a welcoming location for any non-U.S. citizens regardless of religion or national origin.

Solutions

Labor Force: Enticing people back into the labor force may take a combination of offering higher wages and providing social support (such as daycare, improved transportation, etc.) to make work both possible and profitable. Other possibilities include allowing more work to be done at home. Education, often offered by policymakers as a solution, might have long-term effects, but cannot quickly solve the current deficits in the labor force.

Migration within Georgia: The Georgia Department of Labor can make information about job availability in the Atlanta area more readily available to residents in other parts of the state. There may need to communicate the advantages of moving to the Atlanta area, even to the point of helping people understand their options for housing, transportation, etc.

Migration from other states: The Georgia Department of Economic Development could begin a campaign similar to their corporate relocation and expansion efforts but one targeted at workers rather than companies. By focusing on certain skillsets that are most in demand, the agency could encourage both new workers and existing workers to consider relocating to Georgia for their career futures.

Migration from outside the U.S.: Georgia needs to make clear that citizens from other nations with legal work visas are welcomed in the state and help encourage conditions that help immigrants make an easier transition to living in Georgia.

Finally, a less desirable solution to the labor force problem is to have the state’s economy slow down so that the state’s businesses will have less need for additional workers. While it is unlikely that the state would cause such a slowdown deliberately, Georgia is very tied to the national economy and another national recession will certainly impact the state’s business community. Remembering that the previous recession ended six years ago, it is certainly possible that another downturn will develop, which will relieve pressure on Georgia’s slow-growth labor force.

Without any of these solutions, Georgia’s employment numbers may fade on their own as businesses fail to find qualified applicants and leave jobs unfilled.







Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Atlanta grows, while Georgia slows

Fast growth in the Atlanta metro area contrasts with slower growth in the rest of the state
Metro Atlanta’s job market remained strong in July as the area added 13,200 new jobs over the month.

For the 12 months ending in July, the area’s employment has increased by 75,800, placing it 4th in job growth among the nation’s largest population centers after the Los Angeles, New York, and Dallas areas, according to new seasonally adjusted data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. By population, the Atlanta region ranks 9th.

While the Atlanta region’s growth remained robust, conditions in the rest of Georgia slowed. Outside the Atlanta metro area, the state recorded its 5th consecutive month of job losses, dropping 8,600 jobs in July.

From March through July, the Atlanta region has seen the addition of 26,700 new jobs, while the rest of the state has recorded a loss of 20,600 jobs.

Due to this divergence, the Atlanta region has grown by 3.0% over the past 12 months, while the state has recorded a 2.1% growth rate.

With the recent slowdown, the state’s annual job growth dropped from 6th place in June to 8th place in July among the 50 states. For the 12 months ending in July, the state added 89,400 nonfarm jobs. This contrasts with the 130,700 jobs it added in the 12 months ending in July 2014.

Other Georgia Metro Areas

There continues to be pockets of strength outside of the 29-county Atlanta metro area with Savannah adding 4,000 jobs over the past 12 months for a 2.4% growth rate.

The Dalton area continued its recovery from the recession with a 2.6% annual growth rate, while Brunswick recorded an annual increase of 2.4%. Despite the recent rebound in their economies, employment in both Dalton and Brunswick remain below their pre-2007 levels.

Among metro areas in the state, Valdosta recorded the largest 12-month decline in July, shedding 1,200 jobs for a loss of 2.2% since July 2014.

The Atlanta metro area is defined as including Barrow, Bartow, Butts, Carroll, Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, Dawson, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Haralson, Heard, Henry, Jasper, Lamar, Meriwether, Morgan, Newton, Paulding, Pickens, Pike, Rockdale, Spalding, and Walton counties.