Atlanta area consumers continued to see higher food costs in November

Consumers in the metropolitan Atlanta area continued to experience larger than national increases in their costs for food at home in November, according to new information released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Costs for shelter and gasoline in the Atlanta area moved similarly to comparative indexes nationwide.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a full list of changes in consumer prices for all urban consumers in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga., area, not seasonally adjusted, (CPI-U Atlanta) for even-numbered months and publishes a partial list including changes in consumer prices for food at home, shelter, and gasoline in odd-numbered months (January, March, May, July, September, and November).

Food at home

In November, costs for food rose 0.9% in the Atlanta area. The increase comes after there was no recorded increase in food costs in October. Over the 12 months ending in November, food at home costs rose 15.0%. For the nation, food at home costs were unchanged over the month and increased 12.0% for the 12 months ending in November.

Shelter

Costs for shelter in the Atlanta area rose 0.5% in November after increasing 0.7% the prior month. Over the past year, shelter costs have increased 12.9%. Nationally, shelter costs rose 0.6% in November and had risen 7.1% over the past year.

The CPI index for shelter includes costs incurred by both homeowners and renters and also includes costs for lodging away from home and tenants’ and household insurance.

Gasoline

Gasoline prices declined for the fifth consecutive month, dropping 3.2% in November. For the year, gasoline prices have declined 3.7%. Consumers in the Atlanta area continue to benefit from a suspension of the state’s motor fuel tax, which will continue at least into January according to the State of Georgia.

Nationwide, gasoline costs dropped 3.6% over the month and have risen 10.1% over the past 12 months.

Consumers in the Atlanta area saw some slowing of inflation in October although annual increases remained above the national average

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga., metropolitan area rose 10.7% in the 12 months ending in October according to new information released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Because BLS publishes the full CPI index only every two months for the Atlanta area, there is no comparable 12-month increase available for the year ending in September. For the 12 months ending in August, the all-items index rose 11.7%.

Nationally, consumer prices rose 0.4% over the month and 7.7% for the 12 months ending in October.

Food at home

Consumers in the Atlanta area saw no net increase in their costs for food at home in October after seeing a 1.0% increase in September. October was the first month since last November that consumers had seen no increase in their monthly grocery bill. For the 12 months ending in October, food at home costs rose 14.0%, below the 15.5% increase posted for the year ending in September.

Shelter

Costs for shelter in the Atlanta area rose 0.7% in October after increasing 1.0% the previous month. For the 12 months ending in October, the index rose 13.2%.

In October, rents increased 0.5% over the month. Since last October, rents in the Atlanta area have risen 12.2%.

Owners’ equivalent rent of residences advanced 0.8% in October, smaller than the 1.3% rise recorded in September. Over the past 12 months, owners’ equivalent rent has grown by 14.0%, the same annual increase recorded in September.

Gasoline

Gasoline prices continued to decline in October although at a slower pace. Over the month, gasoline prices in the Atlanta area dropped 1.5% after declining 13.6% and 8.1% in August and September, respectively.

For the 12 months ending in October, gasoline prices rose 3.4%, as the Georgia governor continued his moratorium on the state’s fuel tax. The annual increase was the smallest recorded since January 2021 and follows 19 consecutive months of annual increases in the double digits.

Atlanta compared to the U.S.

Nationwide in October, costs for food at home increased 0.5% over the month and rose 12.4% over the year.

Looking at national data, rent increased 0.8% in October and increased 7.5% for the 12 months ending in October.

Owners’ equivalent rent of residences increased 0.7% over the month for the nation and rose 6.9% over the past year.

Gasoline prices moved up 3.1% in October nationwide resulting in a 17.5% rise since last October.

Georgia unemployment rate unchanged in September as state’s labor market continues to roll along

Georgia’s labor market saw the fourth straight month of low unemployment as the state’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.8% in September.

While such a low unemployment rate is good news for job seekers, the fact that the state’s unemployment rate has steadied at this low level might indicate that labor market conditions have reached their peak employment levels.

Without an influx of new workers from outside the state or the decision of potential workers who have left the labor market to return to paying positions, Georgia employers face difficult decisions as to whether to operate without increasing their workforce or to increase their workforce by raising wages to lure workers.

In either case, the low unemployment rate puts stresses on the state’s economy and indicates the possibility of higher inflation in this full employment environment.

One sign of the stress in the labor market for employers is the dropping of the state’s labor force. From January to June, Georgia’s labor force grew by 73,830 (seasonally adjusted). Between June and September, the labor force dropped by 14,997.

The number of workers employed declined by 8,265 from June through September, while the number of unemployed workers dropped by 6,732. Potential workers are leaving the labor force, presumably because they feel they can financially afford the loss of a paycheck. Only a sharp reversal in the economy might bring them back to seek employment.

All these numbers explain why the Federal Reserve continues to focus on raising interest rates to slow the rate of inflation even if it means a slowing of the economy. Although the Fed has a dual mandate for both inflation and employment, it finds a present imbalance as unemployment continues to run below trend while inflation rates continue above trend.

It is impossible to precisely say when an economy is “overheating”, but the continued low unemployment rates along with high levels of inflation (at least compared to the recent past) may be indicators of an “overstimulated” economy.

Nonfarm employment

In September, the state’s nonfarm employment rose by 13,000, approximately the same number as in August. Private sector employment increased by 10,400, just below August’s revised increase of 11,900.

For the nine months ending in September, the state’s nonfarm total employment has increased by 160,200 compared to an increase of 133,500 for the same period in 2021.

In the private sector, jobs increased by 143,600 over the nine-month period, compared to 134,700 for the same period last year.

Both the total nonfarm and private sector nonfarm job numbers are new records for the state, as they have set new records each month since the end of last year.

Atlanta area consumers continue to face rising costs as grocery prices rise 15.5% over the year, the fastest increase since the 1970s

Consumers in the Atlanta area continued to see significant increases in their grocery costs, rent, and gasoline costs in September, according to new information provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Food at home

Atlanta area consumers saw their grocery food costs rise by 1.0% in September, which despite being a significant monthly increase, was the lowest monthly change since December. Between January and August of this year, monthly food costs had increased between 1.1 to 2.0% each month.

As a result of the continued large monthly increases, costs for food at home advanced 15.5% over the year. Consumers in the Atlanta area are experiencing annual increases in grocery costs that have not been seen since 1974, which means most Atlanta consumers have not seen these levels of increases in grocery costs in their lifetimes.

A full list of changes in consumer prices for all urban consumers in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga., area, not seasonally adjusted, is provided by BLS for even-numbered months, while a partial list is provided in odd-numbered months (January, March, May, July, September, and November).

Shelter

For most consumers, housing comprises the largest part of their budget, followed by food and transportation.

In September, rents increased 0.9% over the month, the smallest monthly increase since March. Over the year, rents in the Atlanta area rose by 12.9%, a smaller annual increase than recorded in August. Renters would have to go back to 1980 to see the equivalent of the annual rent increases being experienced in the summer of 2022 in the Atlanta area.

Owners’ equivalent rent of residences advanced 1.3% in September, less than the 1.7% increase recorded in August. Over the past 12 months, owners’ equivalent rent has grown by 14.0% making it nearly equivalent to the 12-month increase recorded in August.

Gasoline

Gasoline prices declined for the third consecutive month, dropping 8.1% in September, a smaller decrease than experienced in August. Despite recent declines, gas prices in the Atlanta area stood 10% above the levels recorded in September 2021. The increase comes despite the Georgia governor’s decision to continue to suspend the state’s motor fuel tax, which moderated the cost of gasoline to consumers in the state.

Atlanta compared to the U.S.

Compared to the U.S. overall, Atlanta consumers are experiencing faster rising costs for food at home, rent, and owners’ equivalent of rent, while seeing slower increases in the cost of gasoline.

Nationally, costs for food at home increased 0.6% over the month and rose 13.0% for the 12 months ending in September.

Rent increased 0.9% over the month and rose 7.2% over the year, while owners’ equivalent rent advanced 0.8% over the month and 6.7% over the year.

Gasoline prices for the nation fell 5.6% in September, but posted a 18.2% increase for the 12 months ending in September.