Georgia’s metro edge counties showing fastest job growth

Counties on the edge of Georgia's metro areas are showing some of the fastest job growth rates, according to recently released information from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The 2007-2009 national recession hit Georgia hard. Between December 2007 and December 2009, more than 8% of jobs in the state disappeared.

As we all know now, since then, the state has experienced a strong rebound in jobs, stronger than the nation as a whole. Since December 2009 through the end of December 2016, the state has gained more than half-a-million new jobs, more than offsetting previous losses.

The story of job growth in Georgia since the recession has been the increasing urbanization, as employment growth concentrated in the state’s metro areas, especially in the Atlanta and Savannah metros.

What is less obvious is that some of the strongest post-recession growth has been not in the core counties in these metro areas, but in their so-called “edge counties”, those counties at the periphery, but still included in the metro areas.

These counties have a host of advantages including lots of lower price land that can be developed at lower cost, along with lower taxes, while still being in commuting range of urban centers.

And this story isn’t just about the Atlanta metro area. Non-core counties are showing remarkable job growth in a variety of metro areas around Georgia.

The job numbers speak for themselves (December 2009-December 2016):

• Twiggs County (Macon MSA): Added 1,317 jobs (+133.4%)
• Burke County (Augusta MSA): Added 4,570 jobs (+77.0%)
• Jackson County (Atlanta MSA): Added 9,745 jobs (+59.1%)
• Echols County (Valdosta MSA): Added 230 jobs (+45.1%)
• Bryan County (Savannah MSA): Added 2,415 jobs (+42.9%)
• Oconee County (Athens MSA): Added 3,199 jobs (+40.6%)
• Jones County (Macon MSA): Added 1,329 jobs (+40.2%)
• Forsyth County (Atlanta MSA): Added 20,033 jobs (+38.0%)
• Monroe County (Macon MSA): Added 1,871 jobs (+32.8%)
• Troup County (Atlanta MSA): Added 9,816 jobs (+32.7%)

For the most recent time frame (December 2015-December 2016), the story remains the same, with Twiggs, Burke, and Oconee counties showing the highest percentage job growth for Georgia counties in metro areas, followed by Meriwether, Murray, and Jackson counties.

Here are the county job growth numbers for the top 10 metro counties between December 2015 and December 2016 (most recent data available from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics):

• Twiggs County (Macon MSA): Added 1,156 jobs (+100.7%)
• Burke County (Augusta MSA): Added 3,533 jobs (+50.7%)
• Oconee County (Athens MSA): Added 1,092 jobs (+10.9%)
• Meriwether County (Atlanta MSA): Added 422 jobs (+9.7%)
• Murray County (Dalton MSA & Chattanooga MSA): Added 880 jobs (+9.6%)
• Jackson County (Atlanta MSA): Added 2,115 jobs (+8.8%)
• Lee County (Albany MSA): Added 491 jobs (+8.1%)
• Walton County (Atlanta MSA): Added 1,520 jobs (+7.2%)
• Paulding County (Atlanta MSA): Added 1,531 jobs (+7.0%)
• Oglethorpe County (Athens MSA): Added 107 jobs (+6.9%)

Admittedly, many of these counties start from a low employment base, which makes it easier to reach the high percentage increases, but consistently, these high job growth counties share one common feature: They are located in a metro area, but are not the core county for that area.

The fast growth of these “edge counties” calls into question earlier reports that people were abandoning the suburbs in favor of urban cores.

Judging from the data, it appears that while Georgia is participating in the general trend towards urban areas over rural ones, many citizens of the state are increasingly able to find work not in the urban core but at the outer edges of these increasingly metro areas.

Atlanta maintains 4th place in job growth in August

Atlanta grew 4^th fastest among the 10 largest metro areas in the U.S. in August, despite adding only 600 jobs over the month according to newly released seasonally adjusted preliminary jobs data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Over the year, the Atlanta area gained 69,800 new jobs. Ahead of Atlanta in terms of job creation came Los Angeles (+122,400), New York (+116,800), and Dallas (+106,100).

Among the largest metro areas, Dallas recorded the largest percentage gain, up 3.2% followed by Atlanta at 2.8%.

Georgia Metro Areas

In Georgia, the Gainesville area recorded the largest increase in jobs in August, adding 800 new jobs, followed by the Atlanta area, which added 600.

Gainesville and Atlanta areas each grew by 2.8% over the year ending in August, while the Savannah area grew by 2.7%.

Over the year, four metro areas in Georgia recorded decreases in net employment. They include Brunswick (-200), Hinesville (-200), Albany (-700), and Valdosta (-1,100).

A total of five Georgia metro areas are still recording employment counts below where they stood in 2007 before the recession including Albany, Brunswick, Dalton, Rome, and Valdosta.

Atlanta grows, while Georgia slows

Fast growth in the Atlanta metro area contrasts with slower growth in the rest of the state

Metro Atlanta’s job market remained strong in July as the area added 13,200 new jobs over the month.

For the 12 months ending in July, the area’s employment has increased by 75,800, placing it 4^th in job growth among the nation’s largest population centers after the Los Angeles, New York, and Dallas areas, according to new seasonally adjusted data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. By population, the Atlanta region ranks 9^th.

While the Atlanta region’s growth remained robust, conditions in the rest of Georgia slowed. Outside the Atlanta metro area, the state recorded its 5^th consecutive month of job losses, dropping 8,600 jobs in July.

From March through July, the Atlanta region has seen the addition of 26,700 new jobs, while the rest of the state has recorded a loss of 20,600 jobs.

Due to this divergence, the Atlanta region has grown by 3.0% over the past 12 months, while the state has recorded a 2.1% growth rate.

With the recent slowdown, the state’s annual job growth dropped from 6^th place in June to 8^th place in July among the 50 states. For the 12 months ending in July, the state added 89,400 nonfarm jobs. This contrasts with the 130,700 jobs it added in the 12 months ending in July 2014.

Other Georgia Metro Areas

There continues to be pockets of strength outside of the 29-county Atlanta metro area with Savannah adding 4,000 jobs over the past 12 months for a 2.4% growth rate.

The Dalton area continued its recovery from the recession with a 2.6% annual growth rate, while Brunswick recorded an annual increase of 2.4%. Despite the recent rebound in their economies, employment in both Dalton and Brunswick remain below their pre-2007 levels.

Among metro areas in the state, Valdosta recorded the largest 12-month decline in July, shedding 1,200 jobs for a loss of 2.2% since July 2014.

The Atlanta metro area is defined as including Barrow, Bartow, Butts, Carroll, Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, Dawson, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Haralson, Heard, Henry, Jasper, Lamar, Meriwether, Morgan, Newton, Paulding, Pickens, Pike, Rockdale, Spalding, and Walton counties.

U.S. job creation catches up with Georgia in July

12-month job growth falls below 100,000 for first time in 17 months

Georgia saw the creation of 6,400 net new jobs in July 2015, according to preliminary seasonally adjusted data released today by the Georgia Department of Labor.

The new information also included a revision that wiped out all the jobs reported in the prior month. 

In June, the labor department announced that 2,300 jobs were added. With the revision, it is now reporting that the state actually lost 4,100 jobs in June.

Among industries in the state in July, retailing (+2,800), professional and business services (+3,100), and local government (+4,300) were significant contributors to the state’s job growth.

Losses occurred mainly in private educational services (-2,100) and state government (-2,400).

Annual job creation slows

For the 12 months ending in July, the state saw 89,400 jobs created, an increase of 2.1 %.

As a result of slower employment growth, 12-month job growth fell below 100,000 for the first time in 17 months. July marked the first time since the beginning of 2013 that state job growth did not exceed the national average.

In some states, like North Dakota, their jobs slowdown can be partially attributed to falling oil prices that have resulted in layoffs in oil and gas production. Since Georgia has little oil and gas, its employment is unaffected by reductions in oil and gas production, and the state’s economy should be benefiting from lower energy costs. Instead, it is recording a marked slowdown.

Metro Areas are key

The Atlanta metro area created 13,200 jobs in July, and the Savannah area saw another 2,000 jobs added. Other metro areas with positive job growth included Albany (+400), Athens (+100), Brunswick (+100), Columbus (+600), Dalton (+200), and Rome (+100).

Metro areas reporting seasonally adjusted declines in July included Augusta (-500), Gainesville (-1,000), Hinesville (-300), Macon (-1,000), and Valdosta (-700).

While the Atlanta metro area is home to approximately 61 % of jobs in Georgia, it has been responsible for almost 85 % of the state’s job growth over the past 12 months.

Unemployment rate

The state’s unemployment rate stood at 6.0 % in July compared to 7.3 % in July 2014 as the state’s labor force continues to shrink.

While many see a lower unemployment rate as a positive sign for the economy, when drops occur due to people leaving the labor market, it can be a negative indicator.

Atlanta metro claims 4th place in new jobs

Employers in the Atlanta metro area created 71,800 new jobs for the 12 months ending in June, the fourth best performance of large metro areas nationwide, according to preliminary data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The new jobs represent a 2.9 percent rise in employment over the year, compared to a 2.1 percent increase nationally.

Table. A. Net change in employment, June 2014 – June 2015, seasonally adjusted
Metro Area	12-month net  employment gain	12-month percentage  employment gain
New York	148,000	1.6 %
Los Angeles	140,800	2.5 %
Dallas	111,800	3.4 %
Atlanta	71,800	2.9 %
Miami	71,400	2.9 %

For the month, the Atlanta area lost 3,000 jobs contrasting with the rest of the state that recorded a pick-up of 5,300 jobs for a net gain of 2,300 jobs statewide in June.

For the three months prior to June, the Atlanta area had averaged an increase of 4,900 jobs each month. In June last year, the metro area reported a one-month increase of 8,600 jobs.

Atlanta Metro Area, Nonfarm Jobs, 2014 - June 2015

In June, metro Atlanta’s unemployment rate stood at 6.0 percent, while the state recorded a rate of 6.1 percent, and the nation showed a rate of 5.3 percent. The Atlanta area rate stood at 7.3 percent in June 2014.

Georgia Metro Areas

Georgia’s metro areas showed mixed results in June and over the year. For the month, excluding the Atlanta area, five areas showed gains, while four areas showed declines, and two were unchanged.

Over the 12 months ending in June, Albany and Valdosta were the only two metro areas in the state recording losses in employment.

Seasonally adjusted data were not available for the Warner Robins area.

Table B. Georgia metropolitan statistical areas, net change in total nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted
Metro Area	1-month net change, June 2015	12-month net change, June 2014 – June 2015
Albany	-600	-700
Athens	400	1,800
Atlanta	-3,000	71,800
Augusta	-1,800	4,100
Brunswick	-400	1,100
Columbus	0	1,700
Dalton	100	2,400
Gainesville	500	3,200
Hinesville	300	800
Macon	600	1,100
Rome	0	500
Savannah	-800	3,400
Valdosta	0	-200
Warner Robins	N/A	N/A

Data are preliminary. Numbers provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Georgia Department of Labor.